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30 Aug 2024 | 09:59:09 PM IST
Synopsis
India Q1 FY25 GDP Growth Data Live News Update: India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 6.7 per cent on an annual basis in the first quarter of FY25, the government data showed on Friday. The data for April-June quarter holds significance as the evaluation comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third term to form government at the Centre in May.
India Q1 FY25 GDP Growth Data Live News Update: India's GDP slowed to a quarter low of 6.7 per cent in April-June this fiscal against 8.2 per cent in the year-ago period, on account of poor showing by the farm sector, revealed government data. India remains the fastest-growing major economy, as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 4.7 per cent. Real GVA has grown by 6.8% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 8.3% in Q1 of the previous financial year. This GVA growth in the Q1 of FY 2024-25 has been driven by significant growth in the Secondary Sector (8.4%), comprising of Construction (10.5%), Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services (10.4%) and Manufacturing (7.0%) sectors. Growth rate in Nominal GVA for Q1 of FY 2024-25 have been estimated at 9.8% over 8.2% growth rate in Q1 of FY 2023-24.
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Wrap-up: Here's all you need to know
- India's real GDP growth slows to 6.7% in April-June quarter
- Real GVA grows by 6.8% in April-June quarter
- India remains the fastest-growing major economy
- PFCE and GFCF growth rates of 7.4% and 7.5% respectively
- Nominal GDP growth at 9.7%
- India poised to be 3rd largest economy, says IMF
- Inflation is under control, says CEA
- Combined Index of Eight Core Industries increases by 6.1%
- India's fiscal deficit at 17.2% of FY25 target as of July
- Industrial growth remains resilient amid supply chain challenges, says CEA
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Recent indicators showed consumer sentiment is waning, says Abhishek Gupta
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: There were some positive signals in the data, with growth in private consumption — which makes up about 60% of GDP — accelerating last quarter, and investment picking up, economist Abhishek Gupta said. "More recent indicators showed consumer sentiment is waning, though, a sign that urban spending may come under pressure, while rural spending recovers," he added.
Meanwhile, Sujan Hajra, chief economist at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said while the quarterly GDP growth rate was below expectations, the expansion for the full year will come close to their forecast of 7%.
“Despite this slowdown, the underlying data presents a positive outlook, with a notable increase in private consumption and a modest improvement in investment activity,” Hajra said. The figures may prompt the Reserve Bank of India to keep interest rates on hold for the rest of the year, he added.
The manufacturing sector has grown at 7 per cent in Q1 FY 2024-25 on the back of strategic reforms and prudent policy measures by the government and efforts of industry
- Sanjeev Agrawal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: GDP numbers could spur RBI to cut rates this year, says Apurva Sheth
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Commenting on India's FYQ1 growth numbers Apurva Sheth, chief markets analyst at SAMCO Securities said the the GDP number is below expectations and apart from that, the recent headline inflation numbers also came below the 4 percent mark.
"This paves the way for the central bank to cut rates by the end of the 2024," he added.
Real GDP of 6.7% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 8.2% in Q1 of FY 2023-24 is entirely in line with our expectations because we had placed our forecast of 6.8 % in the public domain. India's consistently good GDP growth of about 7 % makes it the fastest economy globally. Against this backdrop, Q1 GDP growth in the primary sector occurred at 2.7 %, the secondary sector at 8.4 %, and the tertiary sector at 7.2 %. While close to 7 % GDP growth is certainly good in the light of geo-economic fragmentation, tepid 3.3 % global growth and heightened uncertainties, this marks a deceleration in GDP growth since Q 4 of 2022-23. Muted services growth is largely attributable to the disruptive effects of Lok Sabha elections manifested in high-frequency indicators and the intense heat wave witnessed this year. Overall, for FY 25, we see GDP growth at 7 %.
- Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: "Indian economy demonstrated resilience"
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Despite the challenges of election uncertainties, the Indian economy demonstrated resilience, according to Rumki Majumdar. "GDP growth fell to a five-quarter low of 6.7 % YoY in Q1FY25, a figure within the range of our projected growth of 6.5% to 6.7%. At 7.5%, gross fixed capital formation spending was strong despite the uncertainties and despite strong income repatriation from foreign capital flows," said Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India.
"The economy held its ground, backed by strong private consumption growth, which bounced to 7.4% in Q1FY25 (a seven-quarter high). With inflation easing, we are seeing some recovery in consumption spending, especially in the rural economy. The potential for increased spending in the festive seasons, bolstered by falling inflation, better farm income, and a stable policy outlook, is a reason for optimism," Majumdar added.
"Exports have picked up momentum and grew 8.7% in Q1FY25. While the exports of chemicals, drugs, and pharmaceuticals have been modest, electronics exports have done well. On the other hand, imports have slowed down considerably this quarter. Consequently, the net contribution of trade to GDP has been positive. Manufacturing activities were stronger than what we anticipated (at 7%) based on the IIPs numbers from April to June. However, construction growth was robust at 10.5%. Services did well and continued to support overall growth, Majumdar further stated.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: India's job creation challenge
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Despite strong growth compared to other major economies, India faces ongoing challenges in job creation and achieving more inclusive economic growth. These issues have negatively impacted real wages, household consumption among lower-income groups, and private investments over time. To tackle these challenges, the government has significantly increased spending with a $576 billion annual budget announced last month, which includes substantial allocations for affordable housing and rural employment to stimulate economic activity.
Economists believe that easing retail inflation might prompt the central bank to lower its policy rate later this year, potentially boosting household consumption and supporting private investments.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update:'Non-farm growth holding up well'
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: While commenting on Q1 GDP numbers, Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, said that the Q1 FY25 GDP growth has come in softer than expected, although the GVA (Gross Value Added) has remained firm, with non-farm growth holding up well. 'We retain our GDP growth expectation of 6.9% for FY25, largely supported by rural demand and government spending, while closely monitoring potential fatigue in urban demand, private capex, and the pace of the global slowdown,' she added.
The acceleration in the construction GVA growth, to 11.6 per cent in Q1 FY25 from 8.5 per cent in Q4 FY24, is, particularly, surprising given that the volume growth in construction-related indicators, such as cement and steel output, or infra/construction goods output from the IIP, had slowed between these quarters. Besides, the capex of the Centre and the states had also contracted quite sharply in Q1 FY25.
- Aditi Nayar, Icra Chief Economist, Head - Research & Outreach, on GDP numbers
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: There is an upswing in private capex, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran on GDP numbers
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: The fact that gross fixed capital formation stood at 34.8% of GDP in real terms in the June quarter indicates that private investment is playing its part, CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran said. He added that the growth momentum has remained strong, with the slowdown in the first quarter anticipated due to elections. Elaborating further, the CEA said that in the medium term, the economy could grow at 6.5-7% annually, while potential global financial market corrections may impact household finances and corporate valuations. 'Tertiary sector growth in the June quarter has been affected by an unfavorable base effect,' he added.
Fiscal sustainability is not a concern. Bringing down fiscal deficit sharply from 9.2% in FY21 to 4.9% (projected for FY25) is an achievement
- CEA V Anantha Nageswaran on GDP numbers
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Inflation is under control, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran on GDP
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran asserted that inflation has been under control, which will further boost consumption. 'A good monsoon will provide an additional boost to rural consumption, thereby lifting overall consumption,' he added.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Industrial growth remains resilient amid supply chain challenges, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran on GDP
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Sharing his views on GDP growth numbers of in Q1FY25, CEA V Anantha Nageswaran told ET Now on Friday that the industrial growth of India has remained resilient amid supply chain challenges. Meanwhile, services sector has remained upbeat as well. "Resilient urban demand signals robust economic growth. It's accompanies by a recovery in rural demand," CEA added.
India was the fastest-growing major economy in the June quarter. Data shows better alignment between demand and supply sides of the economy in the June quarter.
- Chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on GDP
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Quarterly estimates of GVA at Basic Prices for April-June FY25
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: India's federal fiscal deficit at 17.2% of FY25 target as of July
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: India's fiscal deficit for April-July was 2.77 trillion rupees ($33.05 billion), or 17.2% of the estimate for the financial year, government data showed on Friday.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Sectoral Composition and Growth Rates of Quarterly GVA
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Quarterly GDP and GVA Estimates
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: India continues to be the fastest-growing major economy
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: India remains the fastest-growing major economy, as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 4.7 per cent.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Quarterly estimates & growth rates
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q1 of 2024-25 is estimated at Rs 43.64 lakh crore, against Rs 40.91 lakh crore in Q1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 6.7%. Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q1 of 2024-25 is estimated at Rs 77.31 lakh crore, against Rs 70.50 lakh crore in Q1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.7%.
Real GVA in Q1 of 2024-25 is estimated at Rs 40.73 lakh crore, against Rs 38.12 lakh crore in Q1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 6.8%. Nominal GVA in Q1 of 2024-25 is estimated at Rs 70.25 lakh crore, against Rs 63.96 lakh crore in Q1 of 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.8%.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Here are the key highlights
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.7% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 8.2% in Q1 of FY 2023-24.
- Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.5% in Q1 of FY 2023-24.
- Real GVA has grown by 6.8% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 8.3% in Q1 of the previous financial year. This GVA growth in the Q1 of FY 2024-25 has been driven by significant growth in the Secondary Sector (8.4%), comprising of Construction (10.5%), Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services (10.4%) and Manufacturing (7.0%) sectors.
- Growth rate in Nominal GVA for Q1 of FY 2024-25 have been estimated at 9.8% over 8.2% growth rate in Q1 of FY 2023-24.
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), at Constant Prices, have witnessed growth rates of 7.4% and 7.5% respectively in Q1 of FY 2024-25.
- Net Taxes, at Current Prices, has observed the growth rate of 8.0 % in Q1 of FY 2024-25 resulting in 0.1% point gap between the growth rates of GVA and GDP.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Real GVA grows by 6.8% in April-June quarter
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Real GVA has grown by 6.8% in Q1 of FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 8.3% in Q1 of the previous financial year. This GVA growth in the Q1 of FY 2024-25 has been driven by significant growth in the Secondary Sector (8.4%), comprising of Construction (10.5%), Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services (10.4%) and Manufacturing (7.0%) sectors.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: India's real GDP growth slows to 6.7% in April-June quarter
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Sensex, Nifty touch record high ahead of GDP numbers
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Indian stock indices settled the week's trade on a high, keeping the gains that were accumulated throughout the day intact. The indices were supported by continued buying by foreign portfolio investors. FPIs who were aggressively selling stocks in India have again started accumulating stocks here, the latest data from National Securities Depository Limited showed.
Both the indices Sensex and Nifty today touched fresh record highs early in the day, to later pare some of their gains. They closed 0.3 per cent higher each at 82,365.77 points and 25,235.90 points, respectively, marginally below their record highs. Among the sectoral indices, pharma, realty, and healthcare were the three top movers today.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Could there be a major surprise in store for Indian economy?
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Although most economists have pointed out that India's GDP growth could moderate in the April-June quarter of FY 2024-25, there may still be surprises in store. In the January-March quarter, India's gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed all expectations, reaching 7.8 percent. The full-year 2023-24 GDP was revised upwards to 8.2 percent from the second advance estimate of 7.6 percent, according to data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: 'Economic landscape remains promising'
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: The GDP data is expected to moderate due to the recent heatwaves and the election cycle. But, analysts are quite optimistic about India's growth despite the signs of a slowdown. According to Equirus Securities, "While there are no signs of a slowdown, it could be a temporary holdup. However, prospects continue to look upbeat with macros holding up well."
"The temporary slowdown could well reverse with favourable weather and the festive season around the corner," the report added.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: What happened in the last two years?
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: India's GDP grew by an impressive 8.2 per cent during the financial year 2023-24, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew by 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, according to official data.
The Economic Survey tabled in Parliament last month "conservatively" projected India's real GDP growth at 6.5-7 per cent for 2024-25, acknowledging that market expectations are higher. Real GDP growth is the reported economic growth adjusted for inflation.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: It will take India 75 years to reach one-quarter of U.S. per capita, says World Bank
"It will take India 75 years to reach one-quarter of U.S. per capita," said a World Bank report released earlier this month, adding "with growing demographic, ecological and geopolitical pressures, there is no room for error."
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: RBI's forecast
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: For the full fiscal year, the central bank expects the economy to grow 7.2%, slower than 8.2% growth the previous year, dragged down by a contraction in state spending and the central bank's tightened rules on retail loans.
India's economy shows strong resilience even as challenges due to supply chain pressures, semiconductor shortages and a rising global freight remained
- SBI report
GDP for the first quarter of FY25 grew at 6.9% annually: Reuters poll
A Reuters poll of 52 economists suggested that the GDP for the first quarter of FY25 grew at 6.9 per cent annually, which is lower than the preceding quarter where India recorded an economic growth of 7.8 per cent.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Moody's, Fitch optimistic about India's GDP growth
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Global rating agencies Moody's and Fitch on Thursday appeared upbeat on India's growth prospects.
Moody's Ratings raised India's GDP expansion projections for 2024 and 2025 to 7.2% and 6.6%, respectively, while Fitch expects India to remain among the fastest-growing sovereigns with GDP growth of 7.2% in the current fiscal year and 6.5% in FY26.
Fitch affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook on strong growth outlook and fiscal credibility. It has kept India's sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-', the lowest investment grade, since Aug 2006.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: SBI Research anticipates Q1 GDP growth at 7.1%
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: According to a recent SBI Research report, India's economy is projected to grow at a rate of 7.0-7.1 percent for the April-June quarter of 2024-25. This forecast comes just days ahead of the official government data release.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Indian economy remains resilient
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Despite global geopolitical uncertainties, the Indian economy has demonstrated resilience. However, the outlook appears more subdued, reflecting a slowdown in several high-frequency indicators, according to the Monthly Economic Review for August released by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Fitch affirms India's 'BBB-' rating
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: International ratings agency Fitch confirmed India’s long-term 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook.
Fitch stated that India’s ratings are supported by its robust medium-term growth prospects, which are expected to enhance structural aspects of its credit profile. This includes India's increasing share of global GDP and its strong external financial position.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Moody’s ups India’s 2024, 2025 growth forecast
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Update: Moody’s Ratings raised its economic growth forecast for India in 2024 to 7.2%, up from the previous estimate of 6.8%. This adjustment reflects signs of increased rural demand driven by improved agricultural prospects due to above-normal rainfall. Additionally, Moody’s anticipates a growth rate of 6.6% for 2025, an upgrade from the earlier projection of 6.4%.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: India's GDP growth figures inflated by tax effects
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: India's growth rates of 8.4% and 7.8% in the last two quarters were partly inflated by the way net indirect taxes are factored into GDP calculations. A different metric, gross value added (GVA), which excludes these tax effects, indicated a more modest growth of around 6%.
Economists suggest that the gap between GDP and GVA figures will likely be smaller in the upcoming data release on Friday. Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, projects a difference of 20-25 basis points this year, down from 93 basis points last year. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists expect GVA to have grown by 6.4% in the April-June period compared to the same period last year.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live:Agriculture benefiting from better rainfall
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: According to Bloomberg, excess monsoon rains, which water about half of the country's farmland, are expected to offer some relief to the agricultural sector and support rural communities. A rural recovery could help raise incomes and reduce food inflation in the months ahead, according to Sameer Narang, an economist at ICICI Bank Ltd.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Govt used 16.3% of its allocated capex
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Updates: In the first quarter of the fiscal year, the government utilized 16.3% of its allocated capital expenditure, down from 27.8% during the same period last year.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: 'No definitive indications of a slowdown'
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Updates:A report from Equirus Securities highlights that analysts are maintaining a positive outlook, observing no definitive indications of a slowdown. They suggest that any current delays might be temporary and could improve with better weather and the upcoming festive season.
The report states, "Although there are no evident signs of a slowdown, it could be a short-term issue. Overall, the outlook remains positive with strong macroeconomic conditions."
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Expenditure in rural regions
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Updates: Expenditure in rural regions, which are home to approximately 65% of India's population, continues to be subdued, said Bloomberg in a report. A Citigroup Inc. index monitoring rural consumption indicates that spending has not yet returned to pre-Covid levels.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: What's leading to lower projections?
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Updates: Businesses are still hesitant to invest, and consumer sentiment declined for the second month in a row in July. This trend is dampening the forecast for private consumption, which accounts for almost 60% of India’s GDP.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Growth at 6.8%?
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Updates: According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the gross domestic product is expected to have grown by 6.8% last quarter compared to the same period a year earlier. This would represent the slowest growth rate in five quarters and fall short of the central bank's forecast of 7.1% for the period. For the January-March quarter, the economy expanded by 7.8%.
GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Revised growth forecast
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Updates: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has reduced its growth forecast for India for the current calendar year by 20 basis points, now predicting a rate of 6.7%. Similarly, Bloomberg Economics has revised its projection for the fiscal year ending March 2025, lowering it to 6.8% from an earlier estimate of 7.2%.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: Potential growth risks
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Updates: Potential growth risks include an extended monsoon or adverse weather damaging crops, slower-than-anticipated private investment, and rising geopolitical tensions. Notably, rainfall from June to September has been 3.5% above the average.
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live: A look at rural consumption
India GDP Q1 FY25 Live Updates: Rural consumption, previously subdued, is now showing positive signs of recovery. This is evidenced by ongoing robust growth in two-wheeler sales and increased tractor sales.
GDP Q1FY25 Live: Concerns about consumption demand
India GDP Q1FY25 Live Updates: Experts have raised concerns about consumption demand due to the recent drop in the RBI's consumer confidence data and a slowdown in passenger vehicle sales. In July, passenger vehicle sales in India decreased by 2.5% compared to the previous year.
GDP Q1FY25 Live: India's Industrial growth
India GDP Q1FY25 Live Updates: Industrial production grew by 5.2% in the first quarter of FY25, surpassing the 4.7% increase recorded during the same period last year.
GDP Q1FY25 Live: A look at government spending
India GDP Q1FY25 Live Updates: In the first quarter, total government spending amounted to Rs 9.69 lakh crore, a decrease from Rs10.5 lakh crore during the same period last year.
GDP Q1FY25 Live: ICRA anticipates slow growth
India GDP Q1FY25 Live Updates: ICRA anticipates GDP growth will slow to a six-quarter low of 6%, with agriculture, forestry, and fishing showing only a modest 1% increase. Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, noted that the high base from last year will influence this outcome.
GDP Q1FY25 Live: India's growth slowing?
India GDP Q1FY25 Live Updates: India's economy is projected to have expanded by a median of 6.85% in the April-June period compared to the same time last year, based on a poll of 14 economists conducted by ET. This represents a decrease from the 7.8% growth recorded in the previous quarter of FY24 and the 8.2% growth seen the year before.
Hello and Welcome to ET's live coverage of India's Q1 GDP data announcement
India GDP Q1FY25 Live Updates: Good morning readers! India's Q1 GDP data will be released today. Stay tuned here for the latest updates and in-depth analysis of the Indian economy.
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